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In the December issue, we reviewed the major in-development and in-production single engine turboprop aircraft models. This month we continue our review of turboprops with a look at some of the contenders in the twin-engine sector.

The news coming out of Las Vegas wasn’t very cheerful. The latest version of Honeywell’s annual Business Aviation Forecast contains a sobering downward revision of projected business jet deliveries by nearly 10 percent over the next decade.

When a company selects an aircraft to support its business pursuits many elements come into play, and the traditionally familiar questions often draw the most attention. Of course, questions of speed, range and airport performance need answering and no savvy CFO expects to sign the approval process without those answers.

Are we up? Are we down? Has the market moved at all? What moved - and if it moved, which way? If the market held, when will it move again? Listening to, and reading various analysts’ outlooks delivers a clear picture of clouded conditions. Some segments of the business-turbine market fared well last year – new and pre-owned, alike.

Honeywell issued its annual business aviation forecast on the eve of the National Business Aviation Association’s annual convention on October 17 and it was - in the words of former baseball great Yogi Berra - “déjà vu all over again.”

Although the headlines ran in September pronouncing that a council of economists identified June 2009 as the endpoint of the Great Recession, many in the aviation business observe that aircraft sales remain recession-bound, sixteen months after the downturn reportedly ended.

The twentieth Teal Group Business Jet Overview has been circulating, and comments that Business aircraft have been hit harder by the economic crisis than any other aerospace market. After unprecedented growth, the market fell by 24.3% (in value of deliveries).

In the 18th edition of its annual Business Aviation Outlook, Honeywell forecast delivery of approximately 11,000 new business jets from 2009 through 2019, generating estimated industry sales of $200 billion.

What a difference a year makes! Twelve months ago Honeywell was predicting a record year ahead, and sales of 17,000 new business jets by the end of 2018 with a total value approaching $300 billion. This year’s forecast is far less grand. Honeywell is now forecasting a continuing downturn for at least another year, followed by a protracted recovery and a new business jet market totaling just 11,000 units from 2009 through 2019 - with an estimated value of $200 billion.

A closer look at the driving factors. Looking at the trends (see Part 1 to this Outlook in World Aircraft Sales Magazine, July issue, p64 to recap), and at the current state of the market and the very strong econometric drivers behind it, we have formulated a forecast that makes the following assumptions:• A market peak in 2008. This is a very unusual event – usually you can see a peak coming. Among all the aerospace markets, business aircraft ...