Embraer delivered over 120 business jets in 2015, the most since 2010 (144 units), notes Sr. Aircraft Appraiser, James Becker. 82 Phenom units were delivered new. But as the used Phenom markets are becoming established, how are these Entry-Level and Small jets faring?
Embraer Phenom 100
The Embraer Phenom 100 used jet market cooled off somewhat during early 2015 and that trend continued through Q4 with only five retail transactions. The total of 20 transactions for the calendar year was down from the 26 that occurred in 2014. A positive indicator for the market, however, is that inventory levels have remained stable and finished the year on a downward trend.
Currently, the 18 Phenom 100s on the market represent only 6% of the fleet. That number is down over 30% since the beginning of the Q3. About half of the Phenom 100s on the market are registered in the US. While prices trend down, they’ve remained relatively stable compared to some models.
Market Snapshot for the Phenom 100
• Number on Market: 18
• Fleet Size: 323
• Fleet % on Market: 6%
• Avg. Ask Price: $2.74m
• Avg. Days on Market (Sold): 208
• Avg. TT of Aircraft Currently For Sale: 1,140hrs
• Transactions in 2015: 20
• Transactions in Q4 2015: 5
Embraer Phenom 300
The Phenom 300 continues to be a very successful aircraft for Embraer and the used market for the model is becoming established. After a slow start in 2015, the used Embraer Phenom 300 market heated up in Q4. Seven retail transactions during that historically-active quarter brought the total aircraft traded in 2015 to 12, topping 2014’s total of 10.
Inventory levels during 2015 bottomed out in Q2 and rose steadily to 15 units by the end of the year, still only representing 5% of the fleet. While prices are trending down slightly, they are very steady compared to some competitors in the light jet class.
Market Snapshot for the Phenom 300
• Number on Market: 15
• Fleet Size: 301
• Fleet % on Market: 5%
• Avg. Asking Price: $7.16m
• Avg. Days on Market (Sold): 120
• Avg. TT of Aircraft Currently For Sale: 902hrs
• Transactions in 2015: 12
• Transactions in Q4 2015: 7
With stable pricing and approximately 5-6% of the fleets available for sale on the used jet market, it will be interesting to see what happens to the value of these aircraft (besides usual depreciation that comes with age) over the course of the coming year.
Has the ‘bump-and-run’ impact of a new model's introduction to market now surpassed the initial ‘bump’ phase of high deliveries that come with the introduction of brand-new models, and settled down to more regular delivery levels for both aircraft?
Could aircraft like the HondaJet compete for new buyer attention, leading to more owners placing their Phenoms on the used jet market, thereby contributing to a build-up of inventory and putting downward pressure on prices for used Phenom models?
Time will tell – 2016 will be an interesting year in the Embraer Phenom 100 and 300 used jet markets… In the meantime, tell us what you think? Leave your thoughts and observations in the comment box below.