Ten-Year Business Jet Manufacturing Forecast

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), small piston aircraft spearheaded the growth in new airplane shipments in 2023 with an 11.8% increase over 2022. Next were turboprops, then business jets with annual increases of 9.6% and 2.5%, respectively. While any growth is good news, in my opinion it could have been much better.

Certification delays in both the turboprop and business jet world would have ‘juiced’ those numbers meaningfully. For example, the latest Beechcraft Denali certification date is now estimated to be in 2025 (six years later than originally planned). Likewise, Dassault was sidelined for several years with its canceled Falcon 5X program, which is only now beginning to get backfilled with the recently-certified Falcon 6X.

Similarly, Gulfstream was hamstrung at the end of 2023 with delayed G700 certification. This resulted in halting deliveries of 15 G700s that were already built and awaiting shipment.

Cessna surprised the industry by delivering fewer jets in 2023 than it did in 2022, but the OEM suggests 2024 numbers will be higher. And finally, a few manufacturers lament supply chain issues which they claim limited their ability to scale-up production and make more deliveries.

If there’s a silver lining to all of this, it’s the fact that these delayed aircraft will eventually make it out the door. With that said, it’s always preferable to have the money in the bank now rather than be exposed to market risks between now and an extended delivery date.

Future Outlook on New Business Aircraft Shipments

Our internal business jet delivery forecast predicts that over the next decade there will be 7,691 shipments worth US$247bn. While we don’t predict exactly when a recession will occur, we ‘bake’ one into our forecast to last two years, just to be on the realistic and conservative side.

Ten Year Business Jet Manufacturing Outlook

For 2024, we see a smart bounce in deliveries from 730 units to 806 – a double-digit percentage increase.

This is in part due to that slug of stored Gulfstream G700s being delivered (and hopefully even a few G800s by year-end), and the Dassault Falcon 6X beginning to hit its delivery stride.

In 2025 we see deliveries reaching their highest levels in 16 years, partly fueled by the new Bombardier Global 8000 starting to deliver as well as the Gulfstream G400.

It appears as though Dassault could have quietly and unceremoniously removed the Falcon 7X from its product line-up, completely purging it from its website. There were only two Falcon 7X deliveries in 2023, and it’s sensible that the Falcon 6X would replace it. Another forecast adjustment was made in moving the first Falcon 10X deliveries from 2025 to 2027.

Gulfstream has wound down G550 deliveries which are being replaced by the G600 as it becomes established, while G650s are expected to peter out once the G800 is certified.

One thing that stood out when updating the forecast was just how crowded the top-of-the-line large cabin segment has become. 

In just a few short years we’ll have seen the addition of the G700, G800, Falcon 10X and Global 8000 to the product mix, which - combined within-production legacy models - makes it the most large cabin category in the business jet market.

Unique risks to the forecast include the potential for large fleet operators to fold or substantially downsize, as well as for fractional providers to cancel or delay large orders. Any speculators, or those who have ordered an aircraft but plan to flip their delivery position for a profit are also a wildcard since they’re the first ones to cancel when the economy gets tough.

With all things considered, and barring any unforeseen events, the industry looks generally bright going forward with even more positive GAMA reports expected to come.

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