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Pre-Owned Aircraft for Sale Trends
Turbine market continues to thrive- the remainder of the re-sale market is nervous.

As we move into 2008- the US Stock Market continues to vacillate. Record personal bankruptcies- foreclosures and high gas prices appear in just about every conversation. While this seems to have no negative effect on new turbine deliveries- the remainder of the re-sale market is nervous.

We’re all looking for a sign- a forecast… anything that will give us a glimpse into tomorrow. Some things about the current market are very different from anything we remember - primarily the spectacular ramp-up of prices in the new and nearly-new jet market. There is every reason to believe the new economies emerging outside the United States will continue to be prosperous in the long term. That is good for general aviation.

Most of the new wide-bodies delivered in the next several years will not have an N-number. However- some common themes remain. Good airplanes sell and junk sits. It doesn’t matter if it’s a Falcon or a Piper. Second- there is volatility. Each market fluctuates- and always had done. Since 2004- Cessna 152s and G-IVs look very similar on a Value Trend Graph (VrefOnLine.com). When markets get flooded- they fall - no rocket science there.

Newly emerging markets will always want what the West has had for many decades - lots of cars- steaks and airplanes. Demand will ebb and flow- due to recessions- but the want will only get stronger. Then why are some airplanes losing value? Despite masterful restorations- 30-year-old jets with ProLine II- or piston twins with KX170s will become increasingly difficult to sell as new generation airplanes populate the market.

The Piston Singles segment continues to be price driven- however- prices appear to be stabilizing. Many complex singles were down in the recent quarter- but the changes were relatively small. A few owners are getting realistic- or perhaps buyers are sensing the bottom surely must be near. As activity improved toward year-end- the persistent downtrend seemed to flatten - mostly for the better airplanes. There is a glut of pre-1990 airplanes- and more are coming to the market everyday.

Mid-time or higher- with no recent paint or panel update- still must be discounted. Even then- holding times can be very long- because today’s buyer can be very picky. As always- the most expensive airplane- with new Garmin and new paint and interior- is probably the best buy.

The weak dollar- long credited with helping the jet market- is now boosting single engine trainers. There is a steady market outside the US for ready-to-go Cessna 152s and Skyhawks- and some prices are up. Beech Musketeers- Sundowners or Sierras are holding steady- while later model F33A Bonanzas are down markedly. The V35B is down slightly- and the A36 is down again- with early models being softer than later models.

Late model Cessna 172s are good. Cardinals are all up- 180 and 185 prices are up slightly as well. However- too many 182s are on the market and prices are down - although a completed crankshaft SB helps. Later model Cessna 210s are down. The Cirrus market continues its slide- while older Mooneys are stable- but there’s downward pressure in newer ones. Piper Comanches are down while Warriors are up- along with older Cherokee 180s and Archers. Late model Cherokee 180s and Archers are down. 200hp Arrows are seeing a slight upward trend- while Dakotas- Cherokee Sixes and Lances are stable. Saratogas are mixed depending on condition and time- and Malibus are holding.

We won’t repeat the adjectives used to describe the Piston Twins- but it’s not pretty. A new uptrend in fuel prices is not helping. Through it all- twin buyers are there if the price is right. There is a mission that only a pressurized twin can fill - a small growing company who wants twin engine safety on short legs with two or three passengers- for example. Most importantly- an overhaul on a GTSIO-520 can be a quarter million dollars less than a PT6.

In the recent quarter- Aerostars have gone flat. Beech Barons are still trending down- and Beech Dukes are flat. Cessna 310s and 340s are edging down- while the 400 series is mostly unchanged- and older 421As and Bs are down again. Piper Twin Comanches- Aztecs and older Senecas continue their downtrend- while Navajos are stagnant unless pristine and Piston Twin Commanders are down again.

For seventeen straight quarters- including the one just gone- the turboprop market has posted gains. The trend remains up- but not at a frantic pace. Low-time King Airs with recent paint and interiors don’t stay around long. Airplanes nearing overhaul- original P&I- or other negatives are piling up though.

King Air C90As are strong- C90Bs are enjoying good activity- E90s are good - no change - and late model F90s are up. B200s are at their highest prices ever and King Air 300s and 350s are still edging up.

Cessna Conquest Is- meantime- are slowing with flat prices- Conquest II prices are down due to looming inspection- Fairchild Merlin IIBs and IIIAs are down and IIIBs flat. Mitsubishis are down. The Pilatus market is as tight as can be- while TBM700s are good with stable prices.

Meanwhile- the Piper Meridian is flat- the Cheyenne I and II are down slightly- the Cheyenne IIIA and 400LS are moving up and the Twin Commander is flat.

Russia- China- India- the Middle East and a declining Dollar add up to a win-win situation in the jet market. Buyers seem happy to pay multi-million dollar premiums due to the very favorable exchange rate- and manufacturers and dealers are scrambling to accommodate. America might be the ‘got to have it now’ society- but the rest of the world is learning fast.

Beechjets are selling soft at the moment- and Premier Is are down. Bombardier’s Challenger 300 is up again- the Challenger 601-3A is active although prices are off- and the 604 is good- but stable. Late model Global Express aircraft are very strong.

Cessna Citation Is are active due to high CJ prices- and all CJs are in demand. Citation IIs are generally off- depending on times and conditions. Meantime the Bravo is a little soft- the Ultra business jets for sale market is better than the Citation V- but both are down- the Encore is enjoying good activity- Excel prices are down- Citation IIIs and VIIs are stable and VIs are down. The Sovereign is good- but the Citation X is a mixed- niche market.

Falcon 2000s and 2000EXs are seeing upward pressure- the Falcon 50 is a loaded market- Falcon 900B and 900EX prices are moderating- while the Falcon 7X is unsurprisingly very rare. Gulfstream G100 prices are putting downward pressure on Astra SPX values- while the G200 market is crowded- but selling. Gulfstream IIIs are OK unless over 10-000TT. The GIV and IVSP continue their upward trek while the G300- G400- G350 and G450 are very tight and prices are up again. The GV is still trending up - G550 buyers don’t want to wait five years for a new one.

Hawker 800As and early XPs are down- but ProLine21 800XPs are very strong. And finally- Lear 45 prices are up- while the backlog of Lear 60XRs are keeping late model 60s strong.

More information from www.vrefpub.com or www.vrefonline.com

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